Supply Chain & Procurement worked example

Supply Chain Risk Score with disruption severity rating of 20 score: a worked example

What does the result look like when disruption severity rating reaches 20 score? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. Use it when supply chain risk in supply chain and procurement needs a defensible ranking against other supply chain and procurement risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Disruption severity rating: 20 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 8)
  • Disruption likelihood rating: 6 score (unchanged)
  • Detectability rating: 7 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Weighted score = severity × 0.40 + occurrence × 0.35 + detection × 0.25) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 11.85 score for supply chain risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 20 score for supply chain risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 6 score for supply chain risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 7 score for supply chain risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where disruption severity rating sits at 8 score and the headline result is 7.05 score, this scenario comes in 68.09% above the baseline at 11.85 score.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when disruption severity rating is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. The score is only as good as the input ratings — a consistent 1-10 scoring guide across raters is essential, or the weighting just formalizes inconsistent guesses; it also does not model correlated risks where several suppliers share one upstream failure point.

Results at a glance

  • Supply chain risk score: 11.85 score (headline result)
  • Supply chain risk severity score: 20 score
  • Supply chain risk occurrence score: 6 score
  • Supply chain risk detection score: 7 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Supply Chain Risk Score calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.