Supply Chain & Procurement worked example

Supply Chain Risk Score with disruption severity rating of 4 score: a worked example

Here is what the math looks like when conditions slip. We hold every other input steady and drop disruption severity rating to 4 score, then walk the calculation through step by step. Score supply chain risk from supplier, logistics, and inventory exposure.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Disruption severity rating: 4 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 8)
  • Disruption likelihood rating: 6 score (held at the documented default)
  • Detectability rating: 7 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Weighted score = severity × 0.40 + occurrence × 0.35 + detection × 0.25.
  • Supply chain risk score works out to 5.45 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Supply chain risk severity score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Supply chain risk occurrence score works out to 6 score at these inputs.
  • Supply chain risk detection score works out to 7 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where disruption severity rating sits at 8 score and the headline result is 7.05 score, this scenario comes in 22.7% below the baseline at 5.45 score.
  • The practical read: the gap between this scenario and the baseline is entirely attributable to disruption severity rating, so recovering it is worth quantifying in dollars before considering equipment or staffing changes. The score is only as good as the input ratings — a consistent 1-10 scoring guide across raters is essential, or the weighting just formalizes inconsistent guesses; it also does not model correlated risks where several suppliers share one upstream failure point.

Results at a glance

  • Supply chain risk score: 5.45 score (headline result)
  • Supply chain risk severity score: 4 score
  • Supply chain risk occurrence score: 6 score
  • Supply chain risk detection score: 7 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Supply Chain Risk Score calculator, set disruption severity rating to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.