How do you calculate a supply chain risk score?

Rate severity, occurrence, and detection each on a 1-10 scale, then apply the weights: severity times 0.40, occurrence times 0.35, and detection times 0.25, summed. Ratings of 8, 6, and 7 give a weighted score of 7.05.

What is a good supply chain risk score?

On a 1-10 scale, scores under 4 are generally low-priority, 4-7 warrant a mitigation plan, and above 7 demand active intervention, dual-sourcing, buffer stock, or a supplier audit. A 7.05 sits at the top of the 'plan now' band.

How is this different from an FMEA RPN?

A traditional FMEA multiplies severity, occurrence, and detection for a 1-1000 RPN. This model uses a weighted average on a 1-10 scale instead, which is easier to interpret and lets you deliberately weight severity heavier than the other two factors.

Why is detection weighted the least?

Detection matters, but a highly detectable risk still hurts if it is severe and likely, you just see it coming. Severity carries the heaviest weight at 40% because the consequence of the disruption drives how much mitigation it deserves.

What does the detectability rating mean here?

It rates how hard the disruption is to spot before it hits your line, a high score means poor visibility, like a sub-tier supplier failure you would learn about only when parts stop arriving. Better monitoring lowers this rating and pulls the overall score down.

How often should I re-score supplier risk?

Refresh scores at least quarterly and immediately after any trigger event, a supplier financial warning, a geopolitical shock, a quality escape, or a single-source dependency emerging from a design change.

Supply Chain & Procurement calculator

Supply Chain Risk Score Calculator

A supply chain risk score distills three FMEA-style dimensions, how badly a disruption would hurt, how likely it is, and how hard it is to see coming, into one weighted number that lets you rank suppliers, parts, or lanes on a common scale. Procurement risk managers, supply-chain planners, and continuity teams use it to decide where to build buffer stock, dual-source, or run a supplier audit, rather than spreading scarce mitigation budget evenly across everyone. Unlike a plain FMEA RPN that multiplies the three factors, this weighted model lets you emphasize severity over the others, which matches how most operations actually feel disruption. The result is a defensible, repeatable way to turn a gut sense of 'this supplier worries me' into a scored, sortable risk register.

What this calculator does

Score supply chain disruption risk as a weighted FMEA-style index: 0.40 x severity + 0.35 x occurrence + 0.25 x detection difficulty, so a hazard that is severe, frequent, and hard to catch scores highest.
Use it when supply chain risk in supply chain and procurement needs a defensible ranking against other supply chain and procurement risks for the next review.
It combines severity, occurrence, and detection ratings into a single weighted risk score, emphasizing severity at 40%, occurrence at 35%, and detection at 25%.

Formula used

Weighted score = severity × 0.40 + occurrence × 0.35 + detection × 0.25

Inputs explained

Disruption severity rating:
Disruption likelihood rating:
Detectability rating:

How to use the result

Use it to build or refresh a supplier risk register, prioritize continuity spending, or screen new sources during qualification.
The score is only as good as the input ratings, a consistent 1-10 scoring guide across raters is essential, or the weighting just formalizes inconsistent guesses; it also does not model correlated risks where several suppliers share one upstream failure point.

Current U.S. benchmarks

U.S. manufacturing runs at 76.0% of capacity (Federal Reserve, Jul 2026). New factory orders are up 7.4% year over year (Census).
Importers paid an average effective tariff of 12.4% of customs value in 2025 across the 57 manufacturing import families MFG Calcs tracks (USITC DataWeb), up from 3.3% the year before. Statutory and effective rates by family, with top source countries, are at mfgcalcs.com/tariffs.
Sourcing currencies as of 2026-08-21 (Federal Reserve H.10): 6.721 CNY and 16.8909 MXN per USD. Landed-cost comparisons move with these daily rates.

Common questions

How do you calculate a supply chain risk score? Rate severity, occurrence, and detection each on a 1-10 scale, then apply the weights: severity times 0.40, occurrence times 0.35, and detection times 0.25, summed. Ratings of 8, 6, and 7 give a weighted score of 7.05.
What is a good supply chain risk score? On a 1-10 scale, scores under 4 are generally low-priority, 4-7 warrant a mitigation plan, and above 7 demand active intervention, dual-sourcing, buffer stock, or a supplier audit. A 7.05 sits at the top of the 'plan now' band.
How is this different from an FMEA RPN? A traditional FMEA multiplies severity, occurrence, and detection for a 1-1000 RPN. This model uses a weighted average on a 1-10 scale instead, which is easier to interpret and lets you deliberately weight severity heavier than the other two factors.
Why is detection weighted the least? Detection matters, but a highly detectable risk still hurts if it is severe and likely, you just see it coming. Severity carries the heaviest weight at 40% because the consequence of the disruption drives how much mitigation it deserves.
What does the detectability rating mean here? It rates how hard the disruption is to spot before it hits your line, a high score means poor visibility, like a sub-tier supplier failure you would learn about only when parts stop arriving. Better monitoring lowers this rating and pulls the overall score down.

Last reviewed 2026-08-12.