How do you calculate a DMSMS obsolescence risk score?

Multiply mission impact severity by obsolescence occurrence likelihood by detection and mitigation difficulty. On the program's scale, severity 6, occurrence 4, and detection 3 combine to a risk score of about 4.55.

Why multiply the factors instead of adding them?

Multiplication makes risk compound, so a part that is high on all three factors stands out sharply from one that is high on only one. Adding would flatten those critical worst-case parts into the middle of the pack.

What is a good obsolescence risk score?

Lower is better. There is no universal threshold because it depends on your scale, but parts in the top quartile of your scored bill of materials are the ones that warrant immediate mitigation planning.

What is detection and mitigation difficulty?

It rates how hard it is to spot an impending end-of-life notice early and act in time, considering monitoring coverage, lead times, and the availability of alternates or redesign paths.

How is this different from a standard FMEA RPN?

The structure mirrors an FMEA risk priority number, but the factors are tuned to obsolescence: occurrence is end-of-life likelihood and detection is mitigation difficulty rather than defect detectability.

How often should obsolescence risk scores be refreshed?

At least annually, and immediately after a product-change or end-of-life notice, supplier consolidation, or a mission-criticality change, since any of those can shift severity, likelihood, or mitigation difficulty.

Defense Electronics & Ruggedized Systems calculator

Obsolescence Risk Score Calculator

Obsolescence Risk Score is a DMSMS-style risk priority number for defense electronics components facing diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages. Obsolescence managers and component engineers on long-lived ruggedized programs use it to rank parts so limited mitigation budgets target the highest-risk items first. The score multiplies how badly an obsolescence event would hurt the program, how likely the part is to go end-of-life, and how hard it is to detect and mitigate in time. Because all three factors compound, a part that is severe, likely, and hard to mitigate scores far higher than any single factor suggests.

What this calculator does

Score DMSMS and lifecycle risk for defense electronics components, embedded boards, displays, processors, connectors, and power supplies.
Use it when obsolescence risk in defense electronics and ruggedized systems needs a defensible ranking against other defense electronics and ruggedized systems risks for the next review.
It multiplies mission impact severity, obsolescence occurrence likelihood, and detection-and-mitigation difficulty into a single DMSMS risk priority score.

Formula used

DMSMS obsolescence risk score = mission impact severity × obsolescence occurrence likelihood × detection and mitigation difficulty
Use the same scoring scale across comparable components, suppliers, and program risk reviews.

Inputs explained

Mission or program impact severity:
Obsolescence occurrence likelihood:
Detection and mitigation difficulty:

How to use the result

Use it during obsolescence reviews, supplier risk assessments, and bill-of-materials triage to rank components for last-time-buys, redesign, or substitution.
It is a relative ranking tool, not an absolute probability; scores are only comparable when every component is scored on the same defined scale by the same criteria.

Current U.S. benchmarks

The producer price index for copper and brass mill shapes stands at 559.593 (BLS, May 2026), up 76.8% from a year earlier. Quotes priced off last quarter's material cost miss this move. Global copper trades at $13,484 per tonne (IMF via FRED, May 2026).
The U.S. has 11,261 computer and electronic products establishments employing about 815,443 workers (Census County Business Patterns, 2023).

Common questions

How do you calculate a DMSMS obsolescence risk score? Multiply mission impact severity by obsolescence occurrence likelihood by detection and mitigation difficulty. On the program's scale, severity 6, occurrence 4, and detection 3 combine to a risk score of about 4.55.
Why multiply the factors instead of adding them? Multiplication makes risk compound, so a part that is high on all three factors stands out sharply from one that is high on only one. Adding would flatten those critical worst-case parts into the middle of the pack.
What is a good obsolescence risk score? Lower is better. There is no universal threshold because it depends on your scale, but parts in the top quartile of your scored bill of materials are the ones that warrant immediate mitigation planning.
What is detection and mitigation difficulty? It rates how hard it is to spot an impending end-of-life notice early and act in time, considering monitoring coverage, lead times, and the availability of alternates or redesign paths.
How is this different from a standard FMEA RPN? The structure mirrors an FMEA risk priority number, but the factors are tuned to obsolescence: occurrence is end-of-life likelihood and detection is mitigation difficulty rather than defect detectability.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.