Forecast · Manufacturing pulse

The U.S. manufacturing forecast.

6-month projections for U.S. industrial production, factory orders, truck tonnage, housing starts, vehicle sales, and metal and resin prices, with accuracy.

Six-month projections

  • Industrial production: projected 99.2 within six months (roughly flat from today), walk-forward MAPE 0.6% (lower is better).
  • Capacity utilization: projected 76.2% within six months (rising 0.6% from today), walk-forward MAPE 0.3% (lower is better).
  • Factory orders: projected $678B/mo within six months (rising 2.2% from today), walk-forward MAPE 0.7% (lower is better).
  • Truck tonnage: projected 114.3 within six months (rising 0.9% from today), walk-forward MAPE 2.4% (lower is better).
  • Housing starts: projected 1234k within six months (falling 3.3% from today), walk-forward MAPE 4.2% (lower is better).
  • Vehicle sales: projected 16.8M within six months (rising 1.5% from today), walk-forward MAPE 1.6% (lower is better).
  • Steel mill PPI: projected 405.7 within six months (rising 6.4% from today), walk-forward MAPE 2.2% (lower is better).
  • Nonferrous mill shapes PPI: projected 427.4 within six months (rising 7.1% from today), walk-forward MAPE 5.1% (lower is better).
  • Primary nonferrous metals PPI: projected 667.6 within six months (rising 22.6% from today), walk-forward MAPE 10.3% (lower is better).
  • Plastic resins PPI: projected 294.2 within six months (rising 4.9% from today), walk-forward MAPE 6.6% (lower is better).

How the model works

  • Each series is fit with damped Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (the ETS family used by statistical agencies): level, trend, and a twelve-month seasonal pattern where two years of history exist.
  • The smoothing and damping parameters are chosen automatically by grid search, scored on walk-forward one-step accuracy on held-out months, so the model shown is the one that has actually tracked each series best.
  • The confidence band is built from held-out prediction errors and widens with the square root of the horizon. Everything is deterministic: the same archived history always produces the same forecast and accuracy.
  • Projections are a statistical extrapolation of past behavior, not investment advice or an official outlook.

Sources

  • Underlying series come from the Federal Reserve (G.17 industrial production and capacity), the U.S. Census Bureau (factory orders, housing starts), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (producer price indexes), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (vehicle sales), and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics via FRED (truck tonnage, calculated from ATA data).

Last reviewed 2026-09-30.