Trade · Manufacturing pulse

U.S. manufacturing trade flows.

Monthly U.S. imports, exports, and trade balance for steel, aluminum, copper, machinery, electronics, vehicles, plastics, and rubber, with projections.

The month in one line

  • Across the eight tracked commodity groups, the U.S. imported $179.7B and exported $73.2B in Jun 2026, a net $106.5B deficit; exports cover 41% of imports.

By commodity group

  • Machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84): $78.4B imported in Jun 2026, up 45.7% from a year earlier. Exports run $25.7B, a $52.6B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $86.4B within six months (backtest accuracy 98%).
  • Electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85): $55.9B imported in Jun 2026, up 33.8% from a year earlier. Exports run $22.0B, a $33.9B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $56.0B within six months (backtest accuracy 89%).
  • Vehicles (HS 87): $28.6B imported in Jun 2026, up 3.7% from a year earlier. Exports run $12.0B, a $16.6B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $29.3B within six months (backtest accuracy 95%).
  • Plastics (HS 39): $6.4B imported in Jun 2026, up 14.9% from a year earlier. Exports run $7.4B, a $1.0B surplus. The model projects the import bill at $6.9B within six months (backtest accuracy 95%).
  • Aluminum (HS 76): $3.0B imported in Jun 2026, up 48.9% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.6B, a $1.4B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $3.2B within six months (backtest accuracy 97%).
  • Rubber (HS 40): $2.9B imported in Jun 2026, up 0.5% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.3B, a $1.6B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $3.0B within six months (backtest accuracy 99%).
  • Copper (HS 74): $2.4B imported in Jun 2026, down 10.3% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.4B, a $0.9B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $2.1B within six months (backtest accuracy 84%).
  • Iron and steel (HS 72): $2.2B imported in Jun 2026, up 1.1% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.8B, a $0.4B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $2.5B within six months (backtest accuracy 98%).

Notes and sources

  • Figures are general imports and total exports by Harmonized System chapter from the U.S. Census Bureau's international trade program (customs value, not seasonally adjusted).
  • Projections extrapolate each import history with a damped Holt-Winters model whose out-of-sample accuracy is shown per commodity; they read momentum, not policy.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.