Trade · Manufacturing pulse

U.S. manufacturing trade flows.

Monthly U.S. imports, exports, and trade balance for steel, aluminum, copper, machinery, electronics, vehicles, plastics, and rubber, with projections.

The month in one line

  • Across the eight tracked commodity groups, the U.S. imported $196.9B and exported $73.0B in Jul 2026, a net $123.9B deficit; exports cover 37% of imports.

By commodity group

  • Machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84): $93.9B imported in Jul 2026, up 59.1% from a year earlier. Exports run $26.7B, a $67.2B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $103.5B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 7.8%; lower is better).
  • Electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85): $56.9B imported in Jul 2026, up 32.2% from a year earlier. Exports run $22.4B, a $34.5B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $63.2B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 4.6%; lower is better).
  • Vehicles (HS 87): $28.2B imported in Jul 2026, up 6.4% from a year earlier. Exports run $10.9B, a $17.3B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $27.5B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 4.2%; lower is better).
  • Plastics (HS 39): $6.4B imported in Jul 2026, up 1.0% from a year earlier. Exports run $7.2B, a $0.8B surplus. The model projects the import bill at $6.9B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 2.9%; lower is better).
  • Copper (HS 74): $3.7B imported in Jul 2026, up 16.2% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.5B, a $2.3B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $4.0B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 26.7%; lower is better).
  • Rubber (HS 40): $2.8B imported in Jul 2026, down 9.1% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.2B, a $1.6B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $2.4B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 12.6%; lower is better).
  • Aluminum (HS 76): $2.7B imported in Jul 2026, up 49.2% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.5B, a $1.2B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $3.4B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 7.6%; lower is better).
  • Iron and steel (HS 72): $2.2B imported in Jul 2026, down 8.3% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.6B, a $0.5B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $2.4B within six months (walk-forward MAPE 3.7%; lower is better).

Notes and sources

  • Figures are general imports and total exports by Harmonized System chapter from the U.S. Census Bureau's international trade program (customs value, not seasonally adjusted).
  • Projections extrapolate each import history with a damped Holt-Winters model whose out-of-sample MAPE is shown per commodity; lower is better, and the projections read momentum, not policy.

Last reviewed 2026-10-01.