Trade ยท Manufacturing pulse

U.S. manufacturing trade flows.

Monthly U.S. imports, exports, and trade balance for the eight commodity groups manufacturing runs on: iron and steel, aluminum, copper, machinery

The month in one line

  • Across the eight tracked commodity groups, the U.S. imported $168.4B and exported $75.7B in Apr 2026, a net $92.7B deficit; exports cover 45% of imports.

By commodity group

  • Machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84): $75.4B imported in Apr 2026, up 47.4% from a year earlier. Exports run $30.3B, a $45.2B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $75.9B within six months (backtest accuracy 94%).
  • Electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85): $49.4B imported in Apr 2026, up 24.1% from a year earlier. Exports run $21.5B, a $27.9B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $50.9B within six months (backtest accuracy 94%).
  • Vehicles (HS 87): $28.1B imported in Apr 2026, up 6.2% from a year earlier. Exports run $11.4B, a $16.7B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $30.5B within six months (backtest accuracy 91%).
  • Plastics (HS 39): $5.7B imported in Apr 2026, down 6.7% from a year earlier. Exports run $7.1B, a $1.4B surplus. The model projects the import bill at $5.6B within six months (backtest accuracy 95%).
  • Rubber (HS 40): $2.9B imported in Apr 2026, down 9.6% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.2B, a $1.7B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $2.6B within six months (backtest accuracy 95%).
  • Aluminum (HS 76): $2.6B imported in Apr 2026, up 21.6% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.5B, a $1.2B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $3.1B within six months (backtest accuracy 92%).
  • Iron and steel (HS 72): $2.1B imported in Apr 2026, down 2.4% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.5B, a $0.6B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $2.3B within six months (backtest accuracy 89%).
  • Copper (HS 74): $2.1B imported in Apr 2026, down 23.0% from a year earlier. Exports run $1.3B, a $0.9B deficit. The model projects the import bill at $2.3B within six months (backtest accuracy 71%).

Notes and sources

  • Figures are general imports and total exports by Harmonized System chapter from the U.S. Census Bureau's international trade program (customs value, not seasonally adjusted).
  • Projections extrapolate each import history with a damped Holt-Winters model whose out-of-sample accuracy is shown per commodity; they read momentum, not policy.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.