How do you forecast saleable harvest weight?

Multiply pick rate per picker-hour by scheduled picker-hours for gross weight, then multiply by crew on-task share and packhouse packout. At 40 lb/picker-hour, 96 picker-hours, 90% on-task, and 88% packout, gross is 3,840 lb and saleable forecast is 3,041 lb.

What is the difference between gross harvested weight and saleable forecast?

Gross weight is everything cut in the field, 3,840 lb in the example. Saleable forecast subtracts 384 lb of attendance and on-task loss and 414.7 lb of trim and packout loss, leaving 3,041 lb that actually ships.

What is a good packhouse packout rate?

For leafy greens and many vegetables, 85 to 92 percent packout is solid; soft fruit and crops with heavy trim run lower. The 88% default here is a realistic mid-range. Track it per crop because it directly scales your saleable forecast.

How do I improve harvest labor productivity?

Raise the pick rate with better row layout and cart logistics, lift on-task share by tightening break discipline and supervision, and protect packout with gentler field handling. Each lever multiplies, so a small gain in all three compounds.

Why is my actual harvest lower than the forecast?

Usually the on-task share or packout assumption was optimistic. If you cut 3,840 lb gross but only shipped 2,800 lb, your combined losses ran higher than the 90% and 88% modeled here. Log actuals and recalibrate the percentages.

How many picker-hours do I need for a target order?

Rearrange the formula: divide your target saleable pounds by (pick rate times on-task share times packout). For a 3,041 lb order at the example rates you need 96 picker-hours, matching the default schedule.

Greenhouse, Indoor Farming & Agri-Processing calculator

Harvest labor forecast calculator

A harvest labor forecast estimates the saleable weight a crew will actually deliver from a planned harvest, after stripping out attendance and on-task losses in the field and trim and grading losses in the packhouse. Farm managers, packhouse supervisors, and operations planners use it to staff harvest days, commit to buyer orders, and reconcile expected versus delivered pounds. The gap between gross cut weight and saleable packout is where margin leaks, so quantifying both loss stages turns a hopeful pick estimate into a number you can sell against. It also exposes whether your bottleneck is field labor productivity or packhouse yield, which point to very different fixes.

What this calculator does

Forecast harvested pounds per shift for a leafy green, herb, tomato, or strawberry crew from per-picker pick rate, available picker-hours, attendance, and post-harvest packout so production can confirm a daily order can be filled.
Use it when scheduling next week's harvest crew, sizing temp labor for a spike order, or sanity-checking whether the planned crew can clear a bench before quality drops.
It computes saleable harvest forecast by multiplying gross harvested weight (pick rate times scheduled picker-hours) by crew on-task share and packhouse packout.

Formula used

Gross harvested weight = pick rate per picker-hour × scheduled picker-hours
Saleable harvest forecast = gross harvested weight × crew attendance and on-task share × packhouse packout

Inputs explained

Pick rate per picker-hour:
Scheduled picker-hours:
Crew attendance and on-task share:
Packhouse packout from cut weight:

How to use the result

Use it when staffing a harvest day, committing to a buyer order, or reconciling forecast against actual delivered pounds.
It applies single average percentages for attendance and packout, so it does not capture per-worker speed variation, fatigue over a long shift, or crop quality swings that change packout day to day.

Current U.S. benchmarks

U.S. housing starts run at 1,177k per year (Census, May 2026), down 8.7% from a year earlier, the demand driver for building products.
Industrial natural gas averages $4.9 per Mcf (EIA, Apr 2026), down 7.7% from a year earlier, with industrial electricity at 8.66 cents per kWh. Process heating and refrigeration budgets track both.

Common questions

How do you forecast saleable harvest weight? Multiply pick rate per picker-hour by scheduled picker-hours for gross weight, then multiply by crew on-task share and packhouse packout. At 40 lb/picker-hour, 96 picker-hours, 90% on-task, and 88% packout, gross is 3,840 lb and saleable forecast is 3,041 lb.
What is the difference between gross harvested weight and saleable forecast? Gross weight is everything cut in the field, 3,840 lb in the example. Saleable forecast subtracts 384 lb of attendance and on-task loss and 414.7 lb of trim and packout loss, leaving 3,041 lb that actually ships.
What is a good packhouse packout rate? For leafy greens and many vegetables, 85 to 92 percent packout is solid; soft fruit and crops with heavy trim run lower. The 88% default here is a realistic mid-range. Track it per crop because it directly scales your saleable forecast.
How do I improve harvest labor productivity? Raise the pick rate with better row layout and cart logistics, lift on-task share by tightening break discipline and supervision, and protect packout with gentler field handling. Each lever multiplies, so a small gain in all three compounds.
Why is my actual harvest lower than the forecast? Usually the on-task share or packout assumption was optimistic. If you cut 3,840 lb gross but only shipped 2,800 lb, your combined losses ran higher than the 90% and 88% modeled here. Log actuals and recalibrate the percentages.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.