How do you calculate a supplier shortage risk score?

Multiply each input by its weight and sum: severity times 0.40, occurrence times 0.35, and detection times 0.25. With severity 8, occurrence 4, and detection 5, the weighted score is 5.85.

Why is severity weighted highest at 40%?

In stack assembly a single missing critical part — a membrane, catalyst, or PTL — stops the whole build regardless of how often it happens. Weighting severity highest reflects that line-down impact dominates total exposure.

What is a good supplier shortage risk score?

On a 1-to-10 input scale the weighted score also runs 1 to 10. Below about 3 is low risk, 3 to 6 warrants monitoring and safety stock, and above 6 to 7 demands dual sourcing or qualified alternates.

How is the detection score defined?

It rates how little advance warning you get before a shortage stops the line. A high score means short detection lead time — you find out late — which raises risk; long, reliable forecast visibility earns a low score.

How is this different from a standard FMEA RPN?

A classic RPN multiplies severity, occurrence, and detection equally. This model instead weights and sums them, so a very high severity does not get diluted by a low occurrence, which better fits single-source line-down risk.

How often should supplier risk scores be reviewed?

Re-score at least quarterly and immediately after any missed delivery, lead-time change, or geopolitical event affecting PGM, titanium, or PFSA supply.

Hydrogen Electrolyzer & Fuel Cell Manufacturing calculator

Supplier Shortage Risk Calculator

Supplier Shortage Risk produces a single weighted score that ranks which suppliers most threaten an electrolyzer or fuel cell line, blending how badly a miss would hurt, how often that supplier misses, and how little warning you get before the line stops. Supply-chain and operations managers use it to triage a bill of materials full of specialized inputs — catalyst-coated membranes, PFSA ionomer, platinum-group catalysts, titanium PTLs — where many parts have single sources and long lead times. Unlike a generic FMEA RPN, this version weights severity most heavily because in stack production a single missing critical part halts the whole build. The score lets you compare suppliers on one scale and focus mitigation where it counts.

What this calculator does

Score the shortage risk of a critical hydrogen stack supplier (membrane, catalyst, bipolar plate, gas diffusion media, gasket) by weighting impact severity, the likelihood of an on-time miss, and the detection lead time before the line goes down.
Use it when a procurement lead or supply chain manager is prioritizing dual-source qualification across membranes, CCMs, bipolar plates, gas diffusion media, gaskets, and end plates and needs a comparable risk score.
It computes one weighted risk score from severity (40%), occurrence (35%), and detection (25%) so suppliers can be ranked on a common scale.

Formula used

Weighted shortage risk score = severity × 0.40 + occurrence × 0.35 + detection × 0.25

Inputs explained

Impact severity if this supplier misses:
Occurrence likelihood (on-time miss frequency):
Detection lead time before the line stops:

How to use the result

Use it during supplier risk reviews, dual-sourcing decisions, and safety-stock planning for long-lead or single-source stack materials.
It is only as good as the 1-to-10 scores you assign; consistent, well-defined anchors are essential or the ranking becomes subjective noise.

Current U.S. benchmarks

Global copper trades at $13,484 per tonne (IMF via FRED, May 2026), up 41.5% in a year, and U.S. industrial electricity averages 8.66 cents per kWh. Both feed electrified-hardware unit economics.

Common questions

How do you calculate a supplier shortage risk score? Multiply each input by its weight and sum: severity times 0.40, occurrence times 0.35, and detection times 0.25. With severity 8, occurrence 4, and detection 5, the weighted score is 5.85.
Why is severity weighted highest at 40%? In stack assembly a single missing critical part — a membrane, catalyst, or PTL — stops the whole build regardless of how often it happens. Weighting severity highest reflects that line-down impact dominates total exposure.
What is a good supplier shortage risk score? On a 1-to-10 input scale the weighted score also runs 1 to 10. Below about 3 is low risk, 3 to 6 warrants monitoring and safety stock, and above 6 to 7 demands dual sourcing or qualified alternates.
How is the detection score defined? It rates how little advance warning you get before a shortage stops the line. A high score means short detection lead time — you find out late — which raises risk; long, reliable forecast visibility earns a low score.
How is this different from a standard FMEA RPN? A classic RPN multiplies severity, occurrence, and detection equally. This model instead weights and sums them, so a very high severity does not get diluted by a low occurrence, which better fits single-source line-down risk.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.