How do you calculate the delivery risk score?

Multiply severity by 0.40, likelihood by 0.35, and detectability by 0.25, then sum. With scores of 6, 4, and 3 the result is 2.4 + 1.4 + 0.75 = 4.55.

Why weight severity higher than the other factors?

A slip that shuts down client startup hurts far more than one caught early or unlikely to occur. The 0.40 weight on severity makes high-consequence packages surface first.

What is a high delivery risk score?

On a 1-10 input scale the score also runs about 1-10. A 4.55 is moderate; scores above 6-7 warrant escalation, expediting, or a schedule buffer.

Delivery risk score vs traditional FMEA RPN?

An RPN multiplies the three factors, so one high number dominates. This weighted-sum keeps the score bounded and lets severity lead without a single factor exploding the result.

How should I score detectability for a skid delivery?

Score how early you would catch a slip. A vendor with weekly progress reporting and expediting scores low (easy to detect); a black-box fabricator with no visibility scores high.

How do I lower a package's delivery risk?

Attack the highest-weighted contributor. With severity at 6 driving most of the 4.55, adding schedule float or a second source cuts risk faster than improving detectability alone.

Process Skids, Modular Equipment & Packaged Plants calculator

Delivery Risk Calculator

Delivery Risk rolls three judgments about a skid package's schedule into a single weighted score so project teams can rank which jobs threaten on-time delivery. Project managers and expeditors on packaged-plant programs use it to triage a portfolio of modules and focus expediting effort where a slip would hurt most. Unlike a raw FMEA product, this tool weights severity most heavily, then likelihood, then how early you would catch a slip, matching how delivery misses actually bite. A high score is a flag to escalate a vendor, add float, or warn the client before the date is blown.

What this calculator does

Delivery Risk rolls three judgments about a skid package's schedule into a single weighted score so project teams can rank which jobs threaten on-time delivery.
Use it when delivery risk in process skids, modular equipment and packaged plants needs a defensible ranking against other process skids, modular equipment and packaged plants risks for the next review.
It computes a weighted delivery-risk score from severity, likelihood, and detectability scores using a 0.40 / 0.35 / 0.25 weighting.

Formula used

Delivery Risk risk score = severity × 0.40 + occurrence × 0.35 + detection × 0.25

Inputs explained

Schedule-slip severity:
Slip likelihood:
Slip detectability:

How to use the result

Use it during project reviews to rank skid packages by schedule threat and direct expediting effort.
The score is only as good as the 1-to-10 judgments behind it; inconsistent scoring across estimators makes cross-project comparison unreliable.

Current U.S. benchmarks

Steel mill PPI stands at 348.53 (BLS, May 2026), up 6.7% from a year earlier. New factory orders are up 2.3% year over year (Census).

Common questions

How do you calculate the delivery risk score? Multiply severity by 0.40, likelihood by 0.35, and detectability by 0.25, then sum. With scores of 6, 4, and 3 the result is 2.4 + 1.4 + 0.75 = 4.55.
Why weight severity higher than the other factors? A slip that shuts down client startup hurts far more than one caught early or unlikely to occur. The 0.40 weight on severity makes high-consequence packages surface first.
What is a high delivery risk score? On a 1-10 input scale the score also runs about 1-10. A 4.55 is moderate; scores above 6-7 warrant escalation, expediting, or a schedule buffer.
Delivery risk score vs traditional FMEA RPN? An RPN multiplies the three factors, so one high number dominates. This weighted-sum keeps the score bounded and lets severity lead without a single factor exploding the result.
How should I score detectability for a skid delivery? Score how early you would catch a slip. A vendor with weekly progress reporting and expediting scores low (easy to detect); a black-box fabricator with no visibility scores high.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.