Market Data

Aluminum Mill Shapes Since the 1982 Base: The Price Level in Charts and Ranked Moves

An original data study of the index's archived record, the biggest monthly jumps, longest rising streaks, and how today's 404.86 ranks against the rest of the history.

At 404.86 (1982=100) as of May 2026, the Producer Price Index for Aluminum Mill Shapes sits 100% of the way up its archived range, and roughly 4.0 times its 1982 base level, up about 36.8% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gains that built that multiple did not arrive as steady drift: they concentrated in commodity-inflation surges, and the archived record examined below shows the same lumpiness in miniature.

The range, ranked

Across the history archived here, the index has run from a low of 295.97 in May 2025 to a high of 404.86 in May 2026, a spread of 36.8% from trough to peak. The latest reading stands 36.8% above the archived low, which is the single most useful benchmarking fact in the series: any job quoted near that low now carries materially different mill-shape economics. Because the index is a ratio to 1982 prices, the level itself is also a long-horizon statement, at 404.86, a basket of mill products that cost $100,000 in 1982 dollars runs about $404,859 today.

Two readings of the same number serve two different jobs. The level answers strategic questions: whether aluminum-intensive designs still clear their cost targets, whether a plant's regional energy advantage still offsets its metal bill, whether a long-term supply agreement struck years ago remains in the money. The change answers operating questions: what this quarter's true-up claim should be, whether a supplier's adjustment letter matches the published market, how stale the standard costs in the ERP have become. Analysts benchmarking today's costs against history should be deliberate about which question they are asking, because the level can sit high in its range while the monthly changes cool, or the reverse, and the two conditions call for opposite postures at the negotiating table.

Aluminum mill shapes PPI, May 2026 (1982=100): 404.86. Archived low 295.97 (May 2025); archived high 404.86 (May 2026). Latest reading sits 100% of the way up the range.

The biggest single-month move on record here

Ranking every month-over-month change in the archived window, the largest single move was +5.6% in Jul 2025. The longest unbroken run of monthly gains lasted 8 consecutive months, ending in May 2026. The pattern matches the series' long-run character: aluminum mill pricing moves in bursts when metal, energy, or trade policy shifts, then plateaus while conversion spreads adjust. For buyers, the practical lesson from the ranking is that averages mislead, the year's change tends to be delivered in its two or three sharpest months, which is precisely when quote validity windows and escalation clauses earn their keep.

How to benchmark against this history

Three uses for the ranked record. First, contract forensics: if a supplier's price adjustment cites "the market," compare it with the index change over the same months, the published series is the neutral referee. Second, budget realism: an annual material budget built on the archived low would be short by 36.8% at today's reading, so peg budgets to the latest print, not the most comfortable one. Third, cycle awareness: with the index climbing and sitting 100% of the way up its archived range, the current reading tells you which end of the historical distribution you are quoting into, and whether the risk you should price is a reversal or a continuation.

Averages mislead: the year's change tends to be delivered in its two or three sharpest months.

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Published 2026-07-13.