How do you calculate a freight risk savings score?

Multiply the severity, occurrence, and detection scores together on a consistent scale. The result is a risk priority number you use to rank lanes against each other; in the example the weighted score is about 4.55.

What do severity, occurrence, and detection mean here?

Severity is how damaging a freight disruption would be, occurrence is how frequently it happens on the lane, and detection is how hard it is to see coming. Higher detection scores mean lower visibility and therefore more risk.

What is a good freight risk score?

There is no absolute threshold; the value is relative ranking. Score all your lanes the same way and prioritize the highest numbers for reshoring, diversification, or buffer inventory.

Why can two lanes with the same score differ?

A rare but catastrophic lane and a frequent but mild one can multiply to the same number. Always inspect the three components, because the mitigation for high severity differs from the one for high occurrence.

How does this connect to reshoring savings?

The highest-scoring lanes are where shortening or domesticating freight removes the most disruption exposure. That avoided risk is real savings that a pure unit-cost comparison misses entirely.

Should I use the same scale across all lanes?

Yes. The score is only meaningful as a ranking, so every lane must use identical 1-to-N definitions for severity, occurrence, and detection or the comparison breaks.

Reshoring & Tariff Strategy calculator

Freight Risk Savings Calculator

Freight risk savings scoring applies FMEA-style risk prioritization to the freight exposure you avoid by reshoring or nearshoring, multiplying how severe a disruption is, how often it occurs, and how hard it is to detect in advance. Supply chain risk managers and reshoring teams use it to rank which lanes carry the most hidden freight risk so the savings from shortening or diversifying them can be prioritized. It matters because freight risk, like a closed canal, a port strike, or a container shortage, rarely shows up in a unit-cost comparison, yet it can dwarf the cost difference when it hits. Putting severity, occurrence, and detection on one scale turns gut feel about lane fragility into a number you can rank and act on.

What this calculator does

Estimate freight risk savings for reshoring and tariff strategy using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.
Use it when freight risk savings in reshoring and tariff strategy needs a defensible ranking against other reshoring and tariff strategy risks for the next review.
Computes a freight risk priority number by multiplying severity, occurrence, and detection scores on a common scale.

Formula used

Freight risk savings risk score = freight risk savings severity score × freight risk savings occurrence score × freight risk savings detection score
Use the same scoring scale across comparable freight risk savings risks.

Inputs explained

Freight risk savings severity score: Score the impact using the same FMEA, quality, safety, delivery, or business-risk scale used by the team.
Freight risk savings occurrence score: Score how often the issue appears using defect history, field data, maintenance records, or supplier performance.
Freight risk savings detection score: Score how likely current controls are to catch the issue before shipment, use, or customer impact.

How to use the result

Use it to rank the freight risk of candidate lanes and prioritize which reshoring or diversification moves capture the most avoided-disruption value.
Like all RPN methods, equal scores can mask very different risks; a high-severity, low-occurrence lane and the reverse can produce the same number, so review the components, not just the total.

Current U.S. benchmarks

Sourcing currencies as of 2026-07-02 (Federal Reserve H.10): 6.7886 CNY and 17.4524 MXN per USD. Landed-cost comparisons move with these daily rates.
U.S. iron and steel imports ran $2.1B in May 2026 (Census International Trade). The U.S. ran a trade deficit of $0.4B in the category that month. Import volumes are the pressure gauge behind tariff and reshoring decisions.

Common questions

How do you calculate a freight risk savings score? Multiply the severity, occurrence, and detection scores together on a consistent scale. The result is a risk priority number you use to rank lanes against each other; in the example the weighted score is about 4.55.
What do severity, occurrence, and detection mean here? Severity is how damaging a freight disruption would be, occurrence is how frequently it happens on the lane, and detection is how hard it is to see coming. Higher detection scores mean lower visibility and therefore more risk.
What is a good freight risk score? There is no absolute threshold; the value is relative ranking. Score all your lanes the same way and prioritize the highest numbers for reshoring, diversification, or buffer inventory.
Why can two lanes with the same score differ? A rare but catastrophic lane and a frequent but mild one can multiply to the same number. Always inspect the three components, because the mitigation for high severity differs from the one for high occurrence.
How does this connect to reshoring savings? The highest-scoring lanes are where shortening or domesticating freight removes the most disruption exposure. That avoided risk is real savings that a pure unit-cost comparison misses entirely.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.