How do you calculate a sourcing risk weighted score?

Multiply severity by occurrence by detection on a consistent scale. With this calculator's severity 6, occurrence 4, and detection 3 inputs, the weighted risk score lands at roughly 4.55, which you then rank against your other sourcing risks.

What is a good sourcing risk weighted score?

There is no universal threshold; it's relative. Score every risk on the same scale, then set an action line, often the top quartile or any item above a chosen cut, for mandatory mitigation rather than judging a single number in isolation.

Sourcing risk score vs FMEA RPN, are they the same?

The math is the same severity x occurrence x detection logic borrowed from design and process FMEA, but the inputs are framed for sourcing: supply disruption, tariff exposure, and lead-time visibility rather than a manufacturing defect mode.

Why use detection in a sourcing risk score?

Detection captures whether you'd see the failure coming. A supplier financial collapse you can't monitor scores high on detection and rightly inflates the total, even when occurrence feels low.

Should I weight severity more heavily?

Many teams cap or gate on severity alone, a single highest-severity rating triggers action regardless of the product, because a multiplicative score can otherwise mask a catastrophic but rare event.

How often should I rescore sourcing risks?

Rescore at each sourcing review or when conditions change: a new tariff, a supplier earnings warning, or a geographic disruption all shift occurrence and detection and should refresh the ranking.

Reshoring & Tariff Strategy calculator

Sourcing Risk Weighted Score Calculator

A sourcing risk weighted score is an FMEA-style risk priority number adapted for procurement and supply-chain decisions. You rate three dimensions, how bad the impact would be (severity), how likely it is (occurrence), and how hard the failure is to catch in time (detection), and multiply them into a single comparable number. Commodity managers, supplier quality engineers, and reshoring teams use it to rank dozens of sourcing risks on the same scale so capital and mitigation effort flow to the worst exposures first. It matters because gut-feel risk ranking buries the supplier that is simultaneously catastrophic, frequent, and invisible until shipment.

What this calculator does

Estimate sourcing risk weighted for reshoring and tariff strategy using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.
Use it when sourcing risk weighted in reshoring and tariff strategy needs a defensible ranking against other reshoring and tariff strategy risks for the next review.
It multiplies severity, occurrence, and detection ratings into a single weighted risk score for ranking sourcing risks against each other.

Formula used

Sourcing risk weighted risk score = severity score × 0.40 + occurrence score × 0.35 + detection score × 0.25
Use the same scoring scale across comparable sourcing risk weighted risks.

Inputs explained

Sourcing risk weighted severity score: Score the impact using the same FMEA, quality, safety, delivery, or business-risk scale used by the team.
Sourcing risk weighted occurrence score: Score how often the issue appears using defect history, field data, maintenance records, or supplier performance.
Sourcing risk weighted detection score: Score how likely current controls are to catch the issue before shipment, use, or customer impact.

How to use the result

Use it during supplier selection, dual-sourcing decisions, or a tariff-driven re-sourcing review to prioritize which risks get mitigation budget.
It assumes all three factors are equally weighted and rated on a consistent scale; a multiplicative score can hide a single catastrophic severity behind low occurrence and detection.

Current U.S. benchmarks

USITC reported an average effective tariff statistic — a calculated-duty rate of 12.4% of covered customs value in 2025 across the 57 manufacturing import families MFG Calcs tracks, up from 3.3% the year before. This is a statistical aggregate, not verified cash paid or an entry-specific legal rate. Statutory and effective rates by family are at mfgcalcs.com/tariffs.
Sourcing currencies as of 2026-10-02 (Federal Reserve H.10): 6.7038 CNY and 18.192 MXN per USD. Landed-cost comparisons move with these daily rates.
U.S. iron and steel import customs value ran $2.2B in Aug 2026 (Census International Trade). The U.S. ran a trade deficit of $0.6B in the category that month. This dollar total mixes price, quantity, product mix, origin, and timing; it does not measure physical import volume or prove a tariff or reshoring effect.

Common questions

How do you calculate a sourcing risk weighted score? Multiply severity by occurrence by detection on a consistent scale. With this calculator's severity 6, occurrence 4, and detection 3 inputs, the weighted risk score lands at roughly 4.55, which you then rank against your other sourcing risks.
What is a good sourcing risk weighted score? There is no universal threshold; it's relative. Score every risk on the same scale, then set an action line, often the top quartile or any item above a chosen cut, for mandatory mitigation rather than judging a single number in isolation.
Sourcing risk score vs FMEA RPN, are they the same? The math is the same severity x occurrence x detection logic borrowed from design and process FMEA, but the inputs are framed for sourcing: supply disruption, tariff exposure, and lead-time visibility rather than a manufacturing defect mode.
Why use detection in a sourcing risk score? Detection captures whether you'd see the failure coming. A supplier financial collapse you can't monitor scores high on detection and rightly inflates the total, even when occurrence feels low.
Should I weight severity more heavily? Many teams cap or gate on severity alone, a single highest-severity rating triggers action regardless of the product, because a multiplicative score can otherwise mask a catastrophic but rare event.
How often should I rescore sourcing risks? Rescore at each sourcing review or when conditions change: a new tariff, a supplier earnings warning, or a geographic disruption all shift occurrence and detection and should refresh the ranking.

Last reviewed 2026-08-12.