Market Data

Aluminum's Three Prices: Why the Global Benchmark, the Mill-Shape PPI, and Imports Disagree

The aluminum price you should watch depends on what you buy. The global ingot benchmark, the US mill-shape index, and import volumes tell three different stories, and the gaps between them are the actionable part.

Ask what aluminum costs and the honest answer is a question back: which aluminum? The global ingot benchmark, currently $3,439/tonne (Jun 2026), up about 36.1% from a year ago, prices the raw metal. The US producer price index for aluminum mill shapes, at 411.42 index (1982=100) (Jun 2026), up about 38.8% from a year ago, prices the extrusions and sheet a fabricator actually buys, which includes conversion cost and regional premium. Import volumes track how much metal is crossing the border to meet demand. These three move together over years but diverge over months, and the divergence is where a buyer learns something.

When mill shapes outrun ingot

The gap between the global ingot price and the US mill-shape PPI is the conversion-plus-premium spread: energy to extrude, labor to fabricate, and the regional delivery premium that reflects local supply tightness. When mill shapes climb while ingot is flat, the pressure is domestic (extrusion capacity, freight, or premium) rather than in the world metal price, and importing semi-finished shapes may relieve it. When ingot climbs while mill shapes lag, fabricators are absorbing the increase temporarily and a catch-up is likely coming. A buyer who watches only the metal exchange misses half of this; the fabricated price is the one on the invoice.

What imports add to the read

Import volumes, currently $3.00B (Jun 2026), up about 48.9% from a year ago, are the demand-and-availability check on the two price series. Rising imports into firm prices signal genuine demand strength; rising imports into falling prices can signal a supply glut arriving. Falling imports while prices climb points to tariff friction or domestic substitution. None of these is visible from a single price line, which is why the three-series read beats any one number. For a fabricator, the practical output is knowing whether a price increase is worth fighting (domestic premium, likely temporary) or worth hedging (global metal, likely durable).

One aluminum price is a headline. Three aluminum prices, read against each other, are a decision.

Aluminum, year by year

Over the 34-year record aluminum has moved decisively rather than oscillated: from $1,209 at the close of 1992 to $3,439 today, up 184%, and now in the upper third of its 34-year range. A change of that size across a span this long is a level shift, not a cycle, and planning that assumes a return to the 1992 figure is planning against the whole record.

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Published 2026-08-05.