MFG Calcs Signals

Signals: The Intelligence Layer on America's Manufacturing Data.

Compare manufacturing costs, tariff exposure, sourcing concentration and economic activity. Each signal shows the latest available reading, its history and the limits that matter when making a decision. All signals are free to use.

Every Signal

  • U.S. Manufacturing Calculated-Duty Estimate: USITC Calculated Duties summed month by month over a constant manufacturing panel since 2014. A statistical estimate, not a cash-collections ledger or total customs revenue. Free CSV and JSON.
  • Calculated Duties by Source Country: USITC Calculated Duties by origin country for one common reporting year across every reported source row in the tracked manufacturing-family boards. Still excludes products outside the tracked family universe; not proof of who remitted duty.
  • How Manufacturing Source Mix Changed Since 2018: The observed #1 import source in 2018 versus now, China's reported share change, and the largest gainer, for manufacturing families with an exact 2018 baseline.
  • Observed Effective-Rate and Import-Value Change: For eligible U.S. manufacturing families, compare import customs value before and after a large observed increase in the effective calculated-duty rate. Statistical co-movement, not a verified legal-action match or causal claim; value, not volume. Free CSV and JSON.
  • Sourcing Diversification Tracker: Named-source HHI concentration floors for U.S. manufacturing families, base versus latest, with retained-board coverage and floor direction. Incomplete endpoints do not establish full-market direction. USITC public-domain, free CSV and JSON.
  • Customs Unit-Value Movers: Aggregate customs unit value (customs value divided by reported quantity) for eligible U.S. manufacturing families, and its change between two adjacent years.
  • MFN-Free and Reciprocal-Preference HTS Line Coverage: Unweighted HTS line coverage by manufacturing family: General-column MFN Free rates, potential reciprocal-preference Free rates, and Chapter 99 references.
  • Manufacturing Wage Board: BLS median hourly wages for core U.S. manufacturing trades, each with its highest- and lowest-paying state, plus a state wage index and the wage-growth trend.
  • My Families Watchlist: Pin the manufacturing families you follow and see their Signals in one place: effective tariff rate, Reshoring Readiness, concentration, and #1 source country.
  • MFG Calcs Forecasts: Six-month statistical forecasts for every live manufacturing series that clears the backtest gate, each with an 80% prediction band and its out-of-sample error.
  • What Is Manufacturing Cost Pressure Right Now?: The Manufacturing Cost Pressure Index (MCPI): one reproducible number for U.S. input-cost pressure from materials, labor, energy, tariffs, and the dollar.
  • How Broad Is Manufacturing Cost Pressure?: The Input Cost Diffusion Index (ICDI): how broad manufacturing input-cost increases are across a frozen basket of 16 series. Above 50, they are broad-based.
  • How Fragile Are Manufacturing Supply Chains?: A 0-100 supply-chain fragility floor for 57 manufacturing import families, from source concentration, single-country dependence, tariffs, and currency risk.
  • Where Is It Cheapest to Manufacture?: The State Cost-to-Manufacture Index: each U.S. state against a national average of 100, blending its manufacturing wage index and industrial electricity price.
  • How Much Do Input Costs Reach Prices?: The MFG Calcs Cost Pass-Through Index: how much of an upstream raw-materials cost move shows up in downstream fabricated-goods prices, and with what lag. The best-fitting lag, the pass-through coefficient, and the input inflation not yet passed through. Free JSON and a keyless API.
  • Is U.S. Manufacturing Expanding or Contracting?: The MFG Calcs PMI: a free, reproducible Purchasing Managers' Index for U.S. manufacturing, built from federal hard data, not a survey. Above 50 means expansion.
  • Observed Effective Rate vs Modeled Reshoring Line: Compare a modeled indexed crossover under assumed base-year price parity with the observed effective calculated-duty rate. Not a legal-rate or absolute-cost determination. Free JSON and API.
  • Observed Effective-Rate Movements: Statistical episodes where the manufacturing effective calculated-duty rate moved, with import-value and Calculated-Duties changes before and after. Not matched legal actions, causal estimates, or seasonally adjusted.
  • How to Verify Every Number: Every MFG Calcs index and ledger carries a SHA-256 of its artifact and inputs, so any reading can be re-hashed, regenerated from public data, and dated in git.
  • How Accurate Are Our Forecasts?: The self-graded track record of our forecaster: out-of-sample error across every published forecast's backtest, directional hit rate, and accuracy by category.
  • U.S. Manufacturing Effective-Tariff Index: the observed effective calculated-duty rate, 14.45% as of Aug 2026, monthly since Jan 2014.
  • Import Burden by Source Country: Compare observed source-country duty and international-freight burdens for 57 manufacturing families. Supplier-level landed-cost ranking remains pending until at least two lanes have complete country-specific unit values. From USITC DataWeb. Free.
  • Which Imports Have the Highest Reported Reshoring Score Floor?: A transparent monthly score floor for 57 manufacturing import families, from tariff pressure, import dependence, and a named-source concentration floor. Coverage and lower-bound flags published. USITC data, free and public.

Forecasts

  • 114 live series carry a published six-month statistical forecast with an 80% band and its backtest error; 8 are held back with a stated reason.

Last reviewed 2026-10-08.