Market Data

The Tariff Quoting Playbook: Pricing Duty Risk Without Guessing

Duty risk doesn't belong in the margin line. A working method for quoting it explicitly, with current effective rates.

The worst place to discover a tariff is in the margin review after the job ships. The defensible quote uses the verified entry treatment for the product, origin, valuation, preference claim, and any additional provisions, stated as its own assumption. Observed family and country rates can bound sensitivity cases but cannot replace that verification. For calibration, the manufacturing-panel observed effective calculated-duty rate was 12.4% in 2025; it is a statistical aggregate, not a default quote rate.

The playbook

Manufacturing-wide effective calculated-duty rate, 2025: 12.4%. Total Calculated Duties ÷ total customs value covered by those duty observations across all tracked families (USITC DataWeb).

Sensitivity example: applying the wire-and-cable family's 12.27% observed aggregate to $250K of hypothetical customs value produces $31K. That is a modeled scenario, not verified entry duty. Reference statistics derived from USITC published data. Not a customs ruling. MFN-Free and Special-rate fields describe statutory line coverage only; final entry liability requires origin, date, eligibility, exclusions and other transaction facts. Calculated Duties are statistical estimates, not a cash-collections ledger. Confirm classification, origin, program eligibility, and final entry liability with a licensed customs broker.

Model annual duty cost from import volume, customs value, and the effective rate. Run your own duty scenario

Published 2026-07-19.