The Yuan Turns

By Wes Calder. From MFGCalcs Magazine, Issue 1, November 2026, page 53.

On April 9, 2025, the yuan sank to its weakest against the dollar in the Federal Reserve daily rates MFG Calcs keeps, which go back to July 2021. That day a quote of 1 million yuan came to about $136,100. On Oct. 16, 2026, the same quote came to about $149,600.

The yuan had turned that April day. It climbed, with stalls, for 18 months, and by Oct. 16 it was worth more against the dollar than on any day since June 2022. The import records cannot say how much of the trade with China is priced in yuan: they count what America buys in dollars and do not say what currency a part was invoiced in.

In its October results, Helen of Troy, a seller of home and beauty products that depends on outside manufacturers, most of them in Asia, still wrote the yuan into its outlook for the fiscal year: “The Company’s outlook continues to include the expectation of higher product costs driven by increases in commodity inputs and pressure from unfavorable Chinese Yuan fluctuations, increased inbound and outbound freight expense, and higher costs to secure goods to avoid supply disruption.”

A dollar quote does not make the climb go away. It hands it to whichever side of the deal pays its bills in yuan. Bel Fuse, an electronic components maker with manufacturing in China, put a number on it in its quarterly report to the Securities and Exchange Commission in August: the yuan’s rise against the dollar had added about $2.3 million to its labor and overhead costs in the first half of the year, compared with a year earlier. Universal Electronics, which designs and makes entertainment, smart-home and climate controls and has subsidiaries in China and Vietnam, said in its August quarterly report that the climb showed in its margin: the weaker dollar against the yuan took back about 1.5 percentage points of the gains in its second-quarter gross margin.

So the lines to check on a quote from China are its currency and the date its price resets. A blanket order or a yearlong contract priced in yuan has passed every move in the rate to the buyer since it was signed. One priced in dollars has held its price, unless it carries a currency clause, and its renewal is where the climb can arrive all at once.

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• The Yuan Strengthens: Chinese yuan

Read it in the magazine

• MFGCalcs Magazine, Issue 1, November 2026, page 53