Forecast Signal

MFG Calcs Forecasts

A six-month path for 114 live U.S. manufacturing series (prices, producer prices, energy, rates, trade flows, and factory demand), each with a band calibrated to an 80% target and its own historical backtest error.

Statistical extrapolation, not market forecasts

  • Each path projects the series' own history; it knows nothing about the next Fed decision or OPEC action. Read the band and the backtest error, not just the central line.
  • A series publishes only if it has at least 12 monthly observations and a backtest error at or below 35%. 8 noisier series are held back, each with its reason.

Every forecast, ranked by projected move

  • Tanks, Vessels, and Gas Cylinders Import Customs Value: $40.5M by Feb 2027 (−55.3% from $90.6M; 80% band ± $51.4M), backtest error 8.3%.
  • Industrial Natural Gas Price: $6.90 by Jan 2027 (+50.6% from $4.58; 80% band $4.60 to $9.20), backtest error 10.6%.
  • Semiconductor and Display Equipment Import Customs Value: $1.19B by Feb 2027 (−46.8% from $2.23B; 80% band $846.2M to $1.53B), backtest error 19.7%.
  • Regional Fed Manufacturing Composite: 26.65 by Mar 2027 (+44.8% from 18.40; 80% band 6.00 to 47.30), backtest error 28%.
  • Steel Flat-Rolled Products Import Customs Value: $269.9M by Feb 2027 (−37.9% from $434.4M; 80% band ± $272.3M), backtest error 14.7%.
  • On-Highway Diesel, Retail: $4.28 by Mar 2027 (−31.9% from $6.29; 80% band $2.43 to $6.14), backtest error 28.8%.
  • Stainless Steel Mill Products Import Customs Value: $115.9M by Feb 2027 (−29.8% from $165M; 80% band $31.3M to $200.4M), backtest error 13.6%.
  • Molds and Die Sets Import Customs Value: $160.5M by Feb 2027 (−28.1% from $223.2M; 80% band $103.9M to $217.1M), backtest error 9.4%.
  • Mont Belvieu Propane Spot: $1.07 by Mar 2027 (+26.2% from $0.85; 80% band $0.83 to $1.31), backtest error 19.8%.
  • Foundry and Rolling Equipment Import Customs Value: $74.5M by Feb 2027 (−25.8% from $100.4M; 80% band ± $95.2M), backtest error 14.9%.
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Stocks: 213.0M bbl by Mar 2027 (−25.2% from 284.7M bbl; 80% band 200.7M bbl to 225.2M bbl), backtest error 6.4%.
  • Metal-Cutting Machine Tools Import Customs Value: $370.6M by Feb 2027 (−23.6% from $485M; 80% band $263.9M to $477.4M), backtest error 13.3%.
  • Electrical Machinery and Equipment Imports: $44.82B by Feb 2027 (−23.2% from $58.34B; 80% band $41.13B to $48.50B), backtest error 17.7%.
  • Titanium and Tungsten Import Customs Value: $130.8M by Feb 2027 (−23.2% from $170.2M; 80% band $110.7M to $150.9M), backtest error 12.4%.
  • Packaging and Filling Machinery Import Customs Value: $433.2M by Feb 2027 (−23.2% from $564.2M; 80% band $351.6M to $514.8M), backtest error 5.5%.
  • Insulated Wire and Cable Import Customs Value: $3B by Feb 2027 (−21.3% from $3.81B; 80% band $2.46B to $3.54B), backtest error 10.1%.
  • Switchgear, Connectors, and Controls Import Customs Value: $3.85B by Feb 2027 (−20.6% from $4.86B; 80% band $3.45B to $4.26B), backtest error 15.2%.
  • Welding Equipment Import Customs Value: $145.1M by Feb 2027 (−19.2% from $179.6M; 80% band $113.2M to $177M), backtest error 19.7%.
  • Machinery and Mechanical Appliances Imports: $106.53B by Feb 2027 (+19.0% from $89.54B; 80% band $97.13B to $115.92B), backtest error 5%.
  • Fabricated Structural Steel Import Customs Value: $415.7M by Feb 2027 (−18.4% from $509.6M; 80% band $179.3M to $652M), backtest error 12.6%.
  • Glass Fiber and Reinforcements Import Customs Value: $175.9M by Feb 2027 (+17.7% from $149.4M; 80% band $148M to $203.7M), backtest error 5.4%.
  • Pumps for Liquids Import Customs Value: $984.6M by Feb 2027 (−16.9% from $1.19B; 80% band $891.5M to $1.08B), backtest error 5.7%.
  • Rubber Imports: $2.43B by Feb 2027 (−16.8% from $2.92B; 80% band $2.03B to $2.82B), backtest error 2.3%.
  • Copper Semi-Finished Products Import Customs Value: $308.3M by Feb 2027 (−16.7% from $370.2M; 80% band $2.1M to $614.5M), backtest error 11.8%.
  • Paints, Coatings, and Finishes Import Customs Value: $91.4M by Feb 2027 (−15.5% from $108.1M; 80% band $71.8M to $111M), backtest error 4.8%.
  • Industrial Furnaces and Ovens Import Customs Value: $97.3M by Feb 2027 (−15.4% from $115M; 80% band $26.7M to $167.8M), backtest error 12.3%.
  • Plastics Imports: $5.52B by Feb 2027 (−14.7% from $6.48B; 80% band $4.83B to $6.22B), backtest error 6.6%.
  • Abrasives and Grinding Wheels Import Customs Value: $78.6M by Feb 2027 (−14.6% from $92.1M; 80% band $63.6M to $93.6M), backtest error 2.7%.
  • Iron Ore Price: $116 by Jan 2027 (+14.2% from $102; 80% band $100 to $132), backtest error 6.9%.
  • Valves and Fluid Controls Import Customs Value: $1.52B by Feb 2027 (−13.8% from $1.76B; 80% band $1.37B to $1.67B), backtest error 6.7%.
  • Plastic Semi-Finished Products Import Customs Value: $1.11B by Feb 2027 (−13.5% from $1.28B; 80% band $953.4M to $1.26B), backtest error 6.6%.
  • PPI: Iron and Steel: 432.79 by Mar 2027 (+12.9% from 383.33; 80% band 380.98 to 484.61), backtest error 1%.
  • PPI: Steel Mill Products: 437.43 by Mar 2027 (+12.6% from 388.58; 80% band 378.05 to 496.81), backtest error 2.2%.
  • Steel Fasteners Import Customs Value: $411.2M by Feb 2027 (−12.3% from $468.8M; 80% band $310M to $512.4M), backtest error 2.9%.
  • Cutting Tools and Inserts Import Customs Value: $410.4M by Feb 2027 (−12.2% from $467.6M; 80% band $363.1M to $457.7M), backtest error 12.2%.
  • Aluminum Semi-Finished Products Import Customs Value: $978.8M by Feb 2027 (+11.9% from $874.7M; 80% band $801.9M to $1.16B), backtest error 11%.
  • Vehicles Imports: $25.33B by Feb 2027 (−10.8% from $28.38B; 80% band $20.71B to $29.95B), backtest error 6.3%.
  • Gaskets and Mechanical Seals Import Customs Value: $73.3M by Feb 2027 (−10.8% from $82.2M; 80% band $66.9M to $79.8M), backtest error 7.4%.
  • Adhesives and Sealants Import Customs Value: $128.6M by Feb 2027 (+10.5% from $116.4M; 80% band $102.5M to $154.8M), backtest error 9.5%.
  • Iron and Steel Castings and Articles Import Customs Value: $427.1M by Feb 2027 (−10.4% from $476.7M; 80% band $231M to $623.2M), backtest error 3.2%.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.48% by Mar 2027 (−10.3% from 4.99%; 80% band 3.73% to 5.23%), backtest error 9%.
  • Gears and Power Transmission Import Customs Value: $860.1M by Feb 2027 (−9.9% from $955M; 80% band $795.9M to $924.3M), backtest error 3.1%.
  • Rubber Materials and Products Import Customs Value: $754.6M by Feb 2027 (−9.8% from $836.9M; 80% band $695M to $814.2M), backtest error 4.4%.
  • Internal Combustion Engines Import Customs Value: $2.32B by Feb 2027 (−9.8% from $2.57B; 80% band $2.08B to $2.57B), backtest error 5.1%.
  • Manufacturing Calculated-Duty Estimate: $3.52B by Feb 2027 (−9.6% from $3.9B; 80% band $476.4M to $6.57B), backtest error 6.7%.
  • Housing Starts: 1,335 by Mar 2027 (+9.4% from 1,221; 80% band 1,205 to 1,466), backtest error 7%.
  • Technical and Refractory Ceramics Import Customs Value: $137.3M by Feb 2027 (+9.3% from $125.6M; 80% band $120.9M to $153.6M), backtest error 6.5%.
  • Measuring and Inspection Instruments Import Customs Value: $956.4M by Feb 2027 (−9.2% from $1.05B; 80% band $799.9M to $1.11B), backtest error 13.8%.
  • Global Aluminum Price: $3,444 by Jan 2027 (+9.1% from $3,158; 80% band $3,093 to $3,795), backtest error 6.6%.
  • Nickel and Nickel Alloys Import Customs Value: $194.2M by Feb 2027 (−8.9% from $213.2M; 80% band $112.1M to $276.4M), backtest error 9.1%.
  • Brent Crude Oil Spot: $104.11 by Mar 2027 (−8.8% from $114.16; 80% band $80.36 to $127.87), backtest error 22.4%.
  • Manufacturing Quits Rate: 1.46% by Feb 2027 (−8.5% from 1.60%; 80% band 1.19% to 1.74%), backtest error 5.3%.
  • Heat Exchange and Process Heating Import Customs Value: $1.26B by Feb 2027 (+8.4% from $1.16B; 80% band $1.08B to $1.44B), backtest error 8.9%.
  • Batteries and Storage Cells Import Customs Value: $2.24B by Feb 2027 (+8.1% from $2.08B; 80% band $846.8M to $3.64B), backtest error 11.4%.
  • Powered Hand Tools Import Customs Value: $466.8M by Feb 2027 (−7.9% from $506.6M; 80% band $199M to $734.6M), backtest error 9.3%.
  • Robots and Automated Machinery Import Customs Value: $1.47B by Feb 2027 (+7.7% from $1.36B; 80% band $1.26B to $1.67B), backtest error 9.6%.
  • Springs, Chain, and Wire Mesh Import Customs Value: $169.4M by Feb 2027 (−7.5% from $183.1M; 80% band $125.6M to $213.2M), backtest error 3.2%.
  • Aluminum Articles Import Customs Value: $191.2M by Feb 2027 (+7.4% from $178M; 80% band $140.3M to $242.1M), backtest error 6.9%.
  • Manufacturing Hires Rate: 2.42% by Feb 2027 (−7.1% from 2.60%; 80% band 2.18% to 2.65%), backtest error 5.9%.
  • Plastics and Rubber Machinery Import Customs Value: $242.1M by Feb 2027 (−7.0% from $260.3M; 80% band $172.2M to $312M), backtest error 11.3%.
  • Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot: $3.15 by Mar 2027 (+6.8% from $2.95; 80% band $0.04 to $6.26), backtest error 31.3%.
  • Transformers and Power Supplies Import Customs Value: $2.86B by Feb 2027 (−6.4% from $3.05B; 80% band $2.52B to $3.2B), backtest error 6.8%.
  • Optical Elements and Lenses Import Customs Value: $375.3M by Feb 2027 (−6.3% from $400.5M; 80% band $312.6M to $438.1M), backtest error 5.5%.
  • Electric Motors and Generators Import Customs Value: $1.68B by Feb 2027 (+5.9% from $1.58B; 80% band $1.37B to $1.98B), backtest error 9.2%.
  • Commercial Electricity Price: 13.7¢ by Jan 2027 (−5.6% from 14.5¢; 80% band 12.9¢ to 14.5¢), backtest error 3.4%.
  • PPI: Paper: 297.52 by Mar 2027 (+5.3% from 282.49; 80% band 293.32 to 301.72), backtest error 1.3%.
  • Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits Import Customs Value: $5.79B by Feb 2027 (−5.3% from $6.12B; 80% band $4.6B to $6.98B), backtest error 8%.
  • Steel Bar, Rod, and Wire Import Customs Value: $304.1M by Feb 2027 (−4.7% from $319M; 80% band $184.7M to $423.6M), backtest error 12.2%.
  • Industrial Electricity Price: 9.3¢ by Jan 2027 (−4.6% from 9.8¢; 80% band 8.8¢ to 9.9¢), backtest error 1.4%.
  • Copper Imports: $3.59B by Feb 2027 (+4.3% from $3.44B; 80% band $1.62B to $5.56B), backtest error 19.3%.
  • Metal-Forming Machine Tools Import Customs Value: $187.2M by Feb 2027 (+4.3% from $179.4M; 80% band $142.7M to $231.6M), backtest error 9.8%.
  • Lamps and LED Lighting Import Customs Value: $174.7M by Feb 2027 (−4.2% from $182.4M; 80% band $80.6M to $268.8M), backtest error 8%.
  • Carbon Products and Insulators Import Customs Value: $134.8M by Feb 2027 (+4.0% from $129.5M; 80% band $113.8M to $155.7M), backtest error 7.3%.
  • PPI: Machinery and Equipment: 210.38 by Mar 2027 (+3.9% from 202.41; 80% band 207.06 to 213.70), backtest error 0.3%.
  • Chinese Yuan: 6.4720 by Mar 2027 (−3.5% from 6.7084; 80% band 6.0365 to 6.9075), backtest error 1.9%.
  • PPI: Lumber: 291.84 by Mar 2027 (+3.4% from 282.34; 80% band 277.98 to 305.70), backtest error 2%.
  • Steel Pipe and Tube Import Customs Value: $560M by Feb 2027 (+3.3% from $542.2M; 80% band $319.1M to $800.9M), backtest error 15.2%.
  • Iron and Steel Imports: $2.17B by Feb 2027 (−3.2% from $2.24B; 80% band $1.67B to $2.67B), backtest error 17.5%.
  • PPI: Industrial Chemicals: 348.71 by Mar 2027 (+3.1% from 338.06; 80% band 333.96 to 363.45), backtest error 3.6%.
  • PPI: Nonferrous Mill Shapes: 413.34 by Mar 2027 (+3.0% from 401.47; 80% band 367.38 to 459.30), backtest error 2.4%.
  • Global Copper Price: $13,949 by Jan 2027 (+3.0% from $13,543; 80% band $11,893 to $16,005), backtest error 3.1%.
  • Manufacturers' Inventories to Sales Ratio: 1.52 by Feb 2027 (+2.9% from 1.48; 80% band 1.49 to 1.56), backtest error 4%.
  • Japanese Yen: 160.7888 by Mar 2027 (+2.8% from 156.4171; 80% band 131.1961 to 190.3815), backtest error 4.1%.
  • Plastics in Primary Forms Import Customs Value: $1.23B by Feb 2027 (+2.7% from $1.19B; 80% band $966.3M to $1.49B), backtest error 10.4%.
  • PPI: Plastic Resins and Materials: 283.46 by Mar 2027 (+2.6% from 276.30; 80% band 274.64 to 292.28), backtest error 5.1%.
  • Manufacturers' New Orders: $646B by Feb 2027 (−2.6% from $663B; 80% band $616B to $676B), backtest error 4.8%.
  • Aluminum Imports: $2.74B by Feb 2027 (−2.4% from $2.81B; 80% band $2.14B to $3.34B), backtest error 16.5%.
  • Manufacturing Job Openings: 534.6 by Feb 2027 (+2.4% from 522; 80% band 426.8 to 642.4), backtest error 12.2%.
  • WTI Crude Oil Spot: $94.82 by Mar 2027 (−2.3% from $97.10; 80% band $72.30 to $117.34), backtest error 19.5%.
  • Hand Tools Import Customs Value: $221.6M by Feb 2027 (−2.3% from $226.8M; 80% band $166.4M to $276.8M), backtest error 7.6%.
  • PPI: Foundry and Forge Shop Products: 302.93 by Mar 2027 (+2.2% from 296.35; 80% band 293.15 to 312.71), backtest error 0.1%.
  • Regular Gasoline, Retail: $4.27 by Mar 2027 (−1.9% from $4.35; 80% band $3.78 to $4.77), backtest error 6.5%.
  • Manufacturing Average Hourly Earnings, Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: $30.78 by Mar 2027 (+1.9% from $30.21; 80% band $30.57 to $30.99), backtest error 0.4%.
  • Lifting and Handling Equipment Import Customs Value: $1.3B by Feb 2027 (+1.9% from $1.27B; 80% band $1.01B to $1.59B), backtest error 7.1%.
  • Bearings Import Customs Value: $278.5M by Feb 2027 (−1.7% from $283.2M; 80% band $245.4M to $311.5M), backtest error 13.1%.
  • Capacitors, Resistors, and Circuit Boards Import Customs Value: $540.2M by Feb 2027 (−1.6% from $549.1M; 80% band $443.2M to $637.3M), backtest error 6.6%.
  • Filtering and Separation Equipment Import Customs Value: $1.37B by Feb 2027 (−1.6% from $1.39B; 80% band $1.22B to $1.52B), backtest error 10.2%.
  • Light Vehicle Sales: 16.2 by Mar 2027 (+1.5% from 16.0; 80% band 14.8 to 17.7), backtest error 2.6%.
  • Euro: 1.1661 by Mar 2027 (+1.4% from 1.1505; 80% band 1.0667 to 1.2655), backtest error 2.3%.
  • Manufacturing Overtime Hours: 4.1 by Mar 2027 (+1.4% from 4.0; 80% band 3.8 to 4.3), backtest error 2.8%.
  • Compressors and Fans Import Customs Value: $1.35B by Feb 2027 (−1.3% from $1.37B; 80% band $931.6M to $1.78B), backtest error 8.4%.
  • Mexican Peso: 17.4818 by Mar 2027 (+1.2% from 17.2695; 80% band 15.3854 to 19.5782), backtest error 1.3%.
  • Truck Tonnage Index: 114.81 by Jan 2027 (+1.2% from 113.50; 80% band 113.43 to 116.19), backtest error 1.8%.
  • PPI: Bolts, Nuts, Screws, Rivets, and Washers: 328.78 by Mar 2027 (−0.9% from 331.92; 80% band 322.13 to 335.43), backtest error 1.2%.
  • Manufacturing Industrial Production: 100.24 by Mar 2027 (+0.8% from 99.44; 80% band 98.95 to 101.53), backtest error 0.4%.
  • Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing: 76.34% by Mar 2027 (+0.6% from 75.92%; 80% band 75.37% to 77.31%), backtest error 0.4%.
  • Turbines and Fluid-Power Drives Import Customs Value: $4B by Feb 2027 (+0.6% from $3.97B; 80% band $3.41B to $4.58B), backtest error 6.7%.
  • Canadian Dollar: 1.4036 by Mar 2027 (+0.5% from 1.3972; 80% band 1.3423 to 1.4649), backtest error 1.4%.
  • Capacity Utilization, Total Industry: 77.10% by Mar 2027 (+0.3% from 76.85%; 80% band 76.18% to 78.03%), backtest error 0.5%.
  • PPI: Other Agricultural Chemicals: 205.44 by Mar 2027 (−0.2% from 205.92; 80% band 189.97 to 220.91), backtest error 0.7%.
  • PPI: Primary Nonferrous Metals: 567.09 by Mar 2027 (+0.2% from 566.01; 80% band 428.49 to 705.70), backtest error 2.6%.
  • Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours: 42.0 by Mar 2027 (+0.1% from 42.0; 80% band 41.1 to 43.0), backtest error 0.4%.
  • PPI: Allied and Miscellaneous Paint Products: 432.52 by Mar 2027 (0.0% from 432.72; 80% band 429.10 to 435.93), backtest error 0.6%.
  • Manufacturing Employment: 12,650 by Mar 2027 (0.0% from 12,652; 80% band 12,486 to 12,814), backtest error 0.1%.

Held back (8)

  • Effective Federal Funds Rate: Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).
  • Bank Prime Loan Rate: Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey: Backtest error above the 35% ceiling, too noisy to publish a point forecast (e.g. a diffusion index that oscillates around zero).
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Backtest error above the 35% ceiling, too noisy to publish a point forecast (e.g. a diffusion index that oscillates around zero).
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: Backtest error above the 35% ceiling, too noisy to publish a point forecast (e.g. a diffusion index that oscillates around zero).
  • Manufacturing Labor Productivity, Quarterly Change: Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).
  • Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs, Quarterly Change: Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).
  • Manufacturing Employment by State: Fewer than 12 monthly observations to backtest a forecast.

Cadence

  • Monthly, refreshed automatically as the underlying federal series update.

Last reviewed 2026-10-01.