Market Wire

Iron Ore Breaks From the Implied Path, Printing $102 a tonne for July 2026

Iron Ore printed $102 a tonne in July 2026, below the month-ahead projection of $122 a tonne published June 2026 — a 19.9% gap, outside the uncertainty band stated with it. Ore feeds the steel PPI with a lag, so this…

Iron Ore printed $102 a tonne in July 2026, below the month-ahead projection of $122 a tonne published June 2026 — a 19.9% gap, outside the uncertainty band stated with it. Ore feeds the steel PPI with a lag, so this is the upstream read on next quarter's mill offers. The print itself was down 2.1% on the month.

The projection was MFG Calcs' statistical continuation of the series' own published history — published in advance on the forecast page, stated with an uncertainty band, never edited afterward — so a gap this size is information: the July 2026 print carried news the trend alone did not. Anyone who penciled July 2026 at the implied level is working 19.9% from the number that actually published.

Every projection is graded when its target month prints; predictions are never revised, and the grade tracks the agency's current figure, so a later restatement of the actual restates the grade with it. Source for the print: IMF global price via FRED.

Published 2026-08-18.