MFG Calcs Signals

How Accurate Are Our Forecasts?

Name: Forecast Accuracy Ledger: How Our Manufacturing Forecasts Have Actually Done
Creator: MFG Calcs
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The self-graded track record of our forecaster: out-of-sample error across every published forecast's backtest, directional hit rate, and accuracy by category.

What this Signal shows

See how accurate the MFG Calcs manufacturing forecasts have actually been: aggregate backtest error and directional hit rate across every series.

Cadence, source and downloads

Cadence: Refreshed automatically whenever the forecasts update.
Self-graded from the same walk-forward backtests the forecast pages render. One-step-ahead out-of-sample; error compounds with horizon. Full ledger at /signals/forecast-accuracy.
Free to download as By category (CSV), Full ledger (JSON), Methodology (JSON) under CC BY 4.0.

Last reviewed 2026-10-01.